Executive Summary......Page 2
AT A GLANCE......Page 4
Asset Quality: Leaning, But Not Falling......Page 5
Chart 3: Monetary actions have been swifter and sharper this time around......Page 6
Chart 4: Composition of the book is much more diversified compared with previous cycles......Page 7
Table 1: Probability of default (PD)......Page 9
Table 2: NPA forecast for banks......Page 10
Overall Sector View......Page 12
Table 3: Credit breakup (modified ) across three cycles......Page 13
Chart 5: Bank-wise LLP (FY08) and net slippage in FY10E......Page 14
Chart 6: Default risk not to impact RoAs illustrated with SBI as benchmark......Page 15
Chart 8: Impact of inflation, credit growth, and NPA......Page 16
Chart 10: Slowdown in exports and weakness in IIP growth have been followed by higher slippages in India......Page 17
Chart 12: Rise in rates has affected retail book......Page 18
Chart 14: SBI net slippage across business cycles......Page 19
Chart 16: SBI’s NPL burden has positive correlation with leverage......Page 20
Fig. 1: Three instances of sharp asset quality deterioration in the past......Page 21
Fig. 2: Improvements which could make a difference this time......Page 23
Fig. 3: Legal channels and loss metrics for NPA performance......Page 25
Chart 17: Corporate leverage is low and coverage ratios are high......Page 26
Chart 18: Long term loans of banks have increased over years (housing andinfrastructure)......Page 27
Corporate Asset Quality......Page 28
Table 8: Pattern and sources of funds of Indian corporates (ex finance)......Page 29
Chart 19: Rise in term lending, reducing working capital cycle and strong profits required less working capital......Page 30
Chart 20: Improving India Inc.......Page 31
Chart 21: Rating watch shows MCR below 1 since FY03......Page 32
Chart 22: Squeezing working capital limit could have probably led to higher defaults......Page 33
Table 11: Stress sector exposure and gross NPA estimate for leading banks......Page 35
Table 12: Banks with exposure to infrastructure......Page 37
Chart 25: % of debt with D/E above 1 and ICOR below 2......Page 38
Table 15: Projects delayed in hydel power......Page 39
Table 17: Top industry exposure amongst select banks......Page 40
Chart 29: Weakness emerging in the sector......Page 41
Table 19: Axis Bank has top non fund exposure while SBI has most overall exposure......Page 42
Chart 33: Margins are weak but coverage has improved......Page 43
Chart 35: Companies with D/E >1 and ICOR 1 and ICOR <2......Page 46
Chart 41: Margins to fall sharply with falling prices......Page 47
Table 25: Top exposure amongst banks......Page 48
Chart 45: Comfortable margins and coverage ratio......Page 49
Chart 49: Margins are fairly weak......Page 50
Chart 53: Margins are fairly weak......Page 51
Table 29: Commercial real estate outstanding and exposure across players......Page 52
Chart 56: Demand outlook is fairly weak......Page 53
Chart 58: Commercial real estate delinquency and charge : Malaysia......Page 54
Chart 59: Score of 1 and ICOR < 2......Page 126
Chart 13: Margins and coverage ratios are sound......Page 127
Chart 17: Margins are expected to come under pressure......Page 128
Chart 21: Stable margins across business cycles......Page 129
Chart 25: Weak demand outlook can impactprofitability......Page 130
Chart 29: Margins and coverage ratios are strong......Page 131
Chart 33: Margins and coverage ratios are declining......Page 132
Table 15: Key assumptions for housing market......Page 133

lgrsnf/D:\!genesis\library.nu\c0\_259284.c098cc5ee0205b02ae9a64cd1b5e1910.pdf

nexusstc/Banking asset quality/c098cc5ee0205b02ae9a64cd1b5e1910.pdf

zlib/no-category/Edelweiss/Banking asset quality_916672.pdf

Almqvist & Wiksell International

до 2011-01

lg492038

{"last_page":136}

2011-06-04